Doug Ford proves his opposition worthless.
Why do the Liberals and the NDP even exist?
As of this morning, Doug Ford has led the Tories to a third consecutive majority at Queen’s Park, a rare feat which last happened in 1959. Projected for 80 of the 124 seats in the Legislative Assembly, Ford will get another four full years in office, and with a slightly larger majority than pre-dissolution.
Considering the public perception that this election was called to get ahead of any controversy from the RCMP’s Greenbelt investigation, by every measure this has been a resounding success for Premier Ford.
He has achieved his primary goal of maintaining power, and manufacturing consent for his next wave of legacy building. He will use the results of this election to argue that every action he takes has a popular mandate.
Despite repeated scandals, despite higher turnout than 2022, and despite most Ontarians despising the status quo, Ford is so popular that he coasted to a third majority without breaking a sweat.
And that ultimately is the thing, isn’t it? Everyone hates the way that things are in Ontario, but nobody wanted any of the alternative options.
The Ontario Liberals got the second-highest share of the popular vote…but people vote for individual candidates, not for parties. Liberal voters are so diffused throughout Ontario that the party only managed to increase from 9 seats pre-dissolution to a projected 14.
The Ontario NDP, on the other hand, have a very concentrated vote, which is helping them keep a lock on their stronghold; they are currently projected for 27 seats, and had 28 seats pre-dissolution. But this creates the opposite problem: the NDP are unable to expand beyond their stronghold ridings.
Ultimately, both parties were screwed over by first-past-the-post voting, but neither bothered to fix it during their respective times in government, because they thought it benefitted them at the time, so I cannot feel pity for either.
Really, there were only a couple winners in this election. The Greens were never going to have the resources to flip more seats, but they successfully defended both of their existing seats. Mike Schreiner and Aislinn Clancy can absolutely expand their caucus in the next cycle.
And a few Liberals did break through in competitive races to peel away seats; Tyler Watt of Nepean, Lee Fairclough of Etobicoke—Lakeshore, and Rob Cerjanec of Ajax all flipped Tory ridings, while Stephanie Smyth defeated NDP incumbent Jill Andrew in Toronto—St. Paul’s.
Most impressively, Independent MPP Bobbi Ann Brady has won re-election a second time in Haldimand—Norfolk. In Ontario, independent candidates may have disadvantages, but personal popularity can take you extremely far, as shown by Brady’s large margin of victory.
Which makes it extremely embarrassing for Independent MPP Sarah Jama that in her race, she came in fourth place. Hamilton Centre has picked the NDP’s Robin Lennox, while Jama wasn’t even the second choice. It is hard to blame Jama’s failure on her independent status when Brady did so well in similar circumstances.
But to be frank, I expected much of this. What I didn’t expect is how Marit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie would walk out to cheers and adulation, to boldly announce that the mediocrity would continue.
Is the NDP really going to repeat the Andrea Horwath days, running the same leader over and over again as they fail to seize the best opportunities their party will ever get?
Stiles failed, but she boasts that Ontario has given her an important job of “holding the government to account.” I hate this phrase, and I hate any opposition MPP who says it, regardless of party.
How are you holding the government to account? I concede that you may be taking account, and that your accounting and bookkeeping may be incredibly accurate.
But if Doug Ford has a massive majority, and no scandal can dent his popularity with the people of Ontario, then how are you holding him to any account? You’re not holding him to shit!
Premier Ford is going to do whatever he wants, and in the few instances he’s stepped back from a policy, it has been due to public outcry and public protest, not a few NDP MPPs ranting and raving in Question Period.
The NDP are in stasis; they seem content to be in second-place forever. I want no part of this kind of complacent helplessness. I don’t want an opposition that merely criticizes, I want an opposition that actually does things.
Even worse than Stiles, however, had to be Bonnie Crombie’s insistence that she will remain as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, despite failing to win her own seat in Mississauga East—Cooksville.
Indeed, the former Mayor of Mississauga is apparently so unpopular that the Liberals have not won any Mississauga ridings, with the potential exception of Mississauga—Erin Mills, which is still uncalled as of now.
Crombie definitely didn’t do Liberal candidates any favours by having her major television advertisements say “Team Bonnie” rather than “Ontario Liberal”. Bonnie Crombie only runs in one riding, but Liberals run across the entire province.
Crombie’s sons came out to introduce her as the “next next Premier of Ontario”, which felt like an absurd stroke of arrogance in the face of such an extreme loss. Crombie is essentially selling the jump from 9 to 14 seats, and the acquisition of “party status”, as enough of a victory to justify remaining in power.
This is the same Bonnie Crombie, mind you, who defeated Nate Erskine-Smith by promising she would win government immediately. Then, she downgraded that promise to winning official opposition. Then, she downgraded that promise to winning between 20 and 25 seats. And she couldn’t even manage that.
Mind you, the threshold for party status used to be 8 seats, not 12. But then Doug Ford raised the limit to prevent the Liberal Party from regaining the status. So I fully believe that he will raise the limit again, yanking it out of reach like Lucy pulling the football back from Charlie Brown.
We were told that Crombie needed to be leader because she was the most “electable”, and that was clearly horseshit. Now, Crombie says that she’s going to stay on, despite the fact that she may very well have killed the Ontario Liberal Party for good. Unacceptable.
For Ontario Liberals reading this, the party rules are clear; Crombie will be subject to a leadership review vote at the next annual meeting, which must be held within two years of yesterday. If she loses that vote, then a leadership race must be held and concluded within one year.
If there is any hope for the Ontario Liberal Party, Bonnie Crombie needs to go. And if she does not leave willingly, a leadership review vote must be held at the earliest opportunity.
I am a proud Federal Liberal, and I remain that way, but in order for me to remain an Ontario Liberal, the leadership situation must be addressed. Crombie’s refusal to relinquish power after such a failure is a dealbreaker, and I cannot stay a member of the Ontario Liberal Party if she is not held to account through a leadership review.
This was a terrible election for progressives in Ontario. Doug Ford has kicked our ass three times. Are we going to sit around and do nothing, waiting for a fourth round in 2029?
As a progressive, I would like to stop repeating these failures. Would you?
Even sadder is that US style healthcare is going to be phased in with less opposition. Public education will get worse as well. This goes beyond provincial political science.
I am so discouraged. I live in a riding that is a Conservative stronghold (chokehold?) and I don’t understand how people can vote this way. This province is facing a continued decline into Trumpist values and governance goals. What can we do to protest? How do we protect the rights of those who will suffer the inevitable erosion of much needed social safety nets? The Ford regime stands for big business interests, not the people who voted for them. Increased access to alcohol, gutting the health care system, and building more highways at the expense of bike lanes and healthy cities—a toxic combination. They really don’t care about citizens.